These warnings come from the IMF just as the Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates here in the U.S., which was expected mid-2015. MarketWatch recently reported that the IMF not only expressed deep concern about the Fed lifting interest rates, but also noted the risk of leaving interest rates low for so long. The IMF's strong warning of a possible $3.8 trillion in losses to global bond portfolios, which could “trigger significant disruption in global markets”, shook the stock market this week. The S&P and the NASDAQ fell into the red for the year on Wednesday, and the Dow did the same last Friday, erasing all their gains for the year. Conversely, gold was driven to a 5-week high on weaker than expected economic reports on three fronts — retail sales, the falling yield on U.S. Treasuries, and a weaker dollar.
As we continuously monitor the global economic progress, we have got to be mindful of the impact of foreign markets here in the U.S. Economic weakness in China and Europe is unquestionably going to have a negative impact on the U.S. economy. Better to err on the side of caution and prepare. As I have always said, there is no harm is taking an umbrella if it looks like rain.
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